It's A Terrible Time For Games

tim-cain game-industry career-advice pessimism game-development history

Abstract

Problem: The gaming industry is perpetually declared to be dying, collapsing, or "in a terrible time" — should aspiring developers and players take this seriously?

Approach: Tim Cain draws on 43 years of experience in the game industry, recounting every era's doomsaying and comparing predictions against what actually happened.

Findings: Every generation has produced the same "it's a terrible time for games" narrative — from the arcade crash to the Atari collapse to the death of PC gaming to the supposed end of turn-based RPGs. Each time, the industry adapted, evolved, and produced landmark titles. The pessimists have been wrong every single time.

Key insight: If you wait for a "perfect" time to make games, play games, or enter the industry, you'll wait forever — it has never existed and never will. Do it anyway.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojYBHy-9xTo

The Phrase That Never Dies

Tim Cain has heard "it's a terrible time for games" his entire career — as a kid, when entering the industry, throughout his time working in it, and still today. He's heard it applied to gamers, game developers, and the industry as a whole. His position: it's actually a pretty good time for games, and if you require everything to be perfect before engaging, you'll be waiting forever.

A 43-Year History of Doomsaying

The Arcade Crash

Arcades were massive when Tim was a teenager. His local mall had an arcade called "Timeout" that was always packed with kids. When arcades closed down, everyone declared it was the end of the industry.

The Atari Collapse

Tim owned an Atari VCS with tons of great games. Then Atari flooded the market with junk — the infamous E.T. cartridge, the terrible Superman game. The entire console market collapsed. People said: "That's it, it's dead." What actually emerged? Nintendo and a whole new wave of consoles.

The Digital Transition

When games went mostly digital, people cried that it was the end of the game industry. Tim's response after decades of hearing this: "Okay, whatever. It's just the latest Chicken Little thing."

Personal Discouragement

Beyond industry-level doom, Tim faced intense personal discouragement:

  • Teachers and grad school peers told him game development was "beneath him" and that he was wasting his Master's degree (he was working on a PhD)
  • His thesis adviser couldn't believe he was walking away from academia
  • Friends told him he was getting in too late — that the industry had already peaked and Richard Garriott would be "the last game developer millionaire" (this was the late 80s/early 90s)

It Doesn't Stop Once You're In

Even after entering the industry, the negative advice kept coming:

  • "Don't make RPGs" — they're a dead genre, everything is going MMO. RPGs still get made and do well.
  • "Don't make PC games" — PC is dead, it's all console and mobile now. This has been declared multiple times. PC gaming has been "dying for 20 years" and is still around.
  • "Don't make turn-based games" — nobody wants them, it's all about action. Then Baldur's Gate 3 came out. The response? "Oh, that's a fluke." Tim's take: "I would love to have a multi-million dollar, multi-million unit selling fluke."

What Would Have Been Lost

If Tim had listened to the pessimists:

  • No Fallout — he wouldn't have entered the industry, or wouldn't have made an RPG, or wouldn't have made it turn-based, or wouldn't have made it for PC
  • No Arcanum — even after Fallout's success, people told him it was a fluke and he should go real-time
  • No Troika Games — the headwinds against starting a studio based on Fallout and Arcanum were enormous ("It's PC! It's RPG! It's turn-based!")
  • No Vampire: The Masquerade – Bloodlines

On AI and Changing Tools

Tim draws a parallel to the 2D-to-3D art transition. 2D artists dismissed 3D art, but 3D became dominant. Many former 2D artists now make textures for 3D games. The same pattern applies to AI:

  • It will replace some jobs and create new ones
  • Like every tool before it, it won't make things "faster" in the way people expect — it will let people make things bigger and better. Levels still take about the same time to make, but now they're larger, more detailed, with lighting, shaders, and environmental complexity that didn't exist before
  • Treat change as an opportunity to go in new directions, not as a reason to quit

The Core Message

People Tim's age regret not trying things far more than they regret trying and failing. He started his own game company (Troika), had to shut it down, and years later does not regret it. He doesn't regret making Arcanum, Temple of Elemental Evil, or Bloodlines.

Nothing is permanent. No genre stays dominant forever. No platform lasts unchanged. No tool remains static. You'll always have to learn something new. Turn-based games came back. Dead genres get reborn. The industry evolves but never actually dies.

"I've heard that for 40 years. I'm tired of hearing it. It's not true."

References