Taking Risks

risk game-development self-confidence indie-dev fallout tim-cain

Abstract

Problem: Why don't game developers take more risks, and why do critics so casually demand they do?

Approach: Tim Cain breaks down risk-taking into two essential prerequisites — self-confidence and situation — drawing on his 44-year career including Fallout, Troika, and solo side projects.

Findings: Risk requires both the inner conviction to withstand attacks on your ideas and the practical life circumstances that allow you to absorb failure. Most people demanding developers "just take risks" underestimate both factors and are unwilling to take those risks themselves.

Key insight: Risk-taking isn't a personality trait you flip on — it's the intersection of confidence earned through experience and a life situation that can absorb the cost of failure.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8vH23pDioA

The Two S's: Self-Confidence and Situation

Tim frames risk-taking around two prerequisites he calls "the two S's":

Self-confidence means being sure about your ideas — not just for yourself, but convincingly enough for everyone you work with. It also means being able to resist attacks (his word) from publishers, other developers, and players. These range from objective criticism ("your idea won't work, here's why") to subjective demolition ("that's the stupidest idea I've ever heard").

Situation means being in a position where you can actually absorb failure. If your idea doesn't pan out, can you handle not shipping a game, or shipping one that sells badly? This isn't just about money — it's about opportunity cost, the time spent and things you didn't do.

Why People Can't Take Risks

Many developers simply aren't in a position to risk:

  • They're using someone else's money — tens or hundreds of millions of dollars — and the investors don't want risk
  • They're responsible for other people's employment (Tim references the guilt of shutting down Troika and how it drove him away from running a company again)
  • Solo developers may need steady income, health insurance, or have family obligations — kids, elderly parents, rent, food
  • The consequences of failure at modern budgets are enormous

Tim's Own Risk-Taking Journey

Tim could take risks early in his career because of specific circumstances:

  • He had no mortgage, no debts, no dependents, and perfect health in his 20s
  • He got lucky with people who believed in him — Pegasus/Cybron hired him based on an Atari art tool he'd built as a contractor
  • He had two programming degrees (bachelor's and master's), had played a huge range of games (video, board, tabletop RPGs), and had been in the industry for 13 years before getting put in charge of Fallout in 1994 (starting in 1981)
  • His side projects on nights and weekends — engines, OS abstraction libraries — became the foundation for work projects

He notes that his situation has changed. He now has a mortgage, health concerns, and more obligations. Even his confidence gets tested — across nearly 600 YouTube videos, the sheer volume of negative comments adds up. Other developers ask him why he opens himself up to attack. His answer: the YouTube comments are nothing compared to 44 years of personal insults, sarcasm, and demoralizing feedback from publishers, bosses, employees, and "fans."

The Challenge to Critics

Tim closes with a pointed challenge: if you're complaining about developers not taking risks, why aren't you taking risks yourself? Tools exist — engines, purchasable art and scripts, AI coding assistance. If you truly have great ideas, make something. And if you're not willing to, consider dialing back how harshly you criticize others for the same reluctance.

He's not saying don't give feedback (he has a whole video on giving good feedback), but to consider the cost before demanding others risk everything.

References