Abstract
Problem: Which AD&D character class is statistically "best" when evaluated purely on level advancement speed and hit point averages?
Approach: Tim Cain shares a never-published article he submitted to Dragon Magazine (~1987) in which he graphed every AD&D class's XP-to-level curves and hit point averages, including Unearthed Arcana classes.
Findings: Thieves aren't the fastest-rising class (Druids beat them at mid-levels), Paladins aren't the slowest (Barbarians and Monks are worse), Cavaliers dominate hit points even without Constitution bonuses, and the Cleric/Fighter/Magic-User multiclass can use virtually every magic item in the game.
Key insight: Even as a teenager, Cain's instinct was to systematically deconstruct game mechanics — the same analytical mindset that would later drive his professional game design career.
The Unpublished Article
Tim Cain reveals a physical artifact: a submission he mailed to Dragon Magazine editor Roger Moore, circa 1987. The article, titled "Picking Your Best Class: An Analysis of AD&D Character Classes," was rejected with a form letter — but Moore hand-wrote "Good work though" at the bottom.
The article systematically compared all AD&D character classes (including Cavalier, Barbarian, and Thief-Acrobat from Unearthed Arcana) by plotting their XP requirements against both level progression and hit point averages.
Level Advancement Surprises
The Thief Isn't the Fastest
Between levels 6 and 12, the Druid is clearly the advancement winner, beating the Thief easily and sitting a full four levels higher than the Barbarian (the worst class for advancement).
The Paladin Isn't the Slowest
Contrary to popular belief, the Monk (levels 5–9) and the Barbarian (at all other levels) advance far more slowly than the Paladin.
Upper-Level Advancement
Above 12th level, Thieves and Illusionists are the fastest-rising classes and are effectively equal — both need the same XP per level. The Druid, previously the best, drops to second-worst between levels 12 and 14.
Hit Point Analysis
Cavaliers have the best hit point averages of any class, even without their Constitution bonus (which they're guaranteed to have, requiring 15+ CON). They get a d10+3 at level 1 (8.5 average) versus a Fighter's 5.5. A Magic-User at level 32 has fewer hit points than a Cavalier at level 9.
The Monk is actually worse than the Magic-User for hit points at levels 7–9 due to its terrible advancement rate.
Barbarians look deceptively good on paper thanks to their +2 HP per CON point above 14, but their glacial advancement means Cavaliers overtake them at higher levels.
Class Recommendations
Cain's min-maxed recommendations by role:
- Best overall: Bard (written in all caps — "you will be your DM's worst nightmare"). Best hit point average, fighter combat, spells, and thieving abilities. He explicitly excluded Bards from the graphs because their tri-class advancement was too complex to chart.
- Best cleric: Druid. Gets Cure Light Wounds quickly, reaches Cure Serious Wounds at half the XP a Cleric needs, and can shapechange instead of healing themselves.
- Best fighter: Cavalier. Superior hit points, faster advancement than Fighters at levels 9–13, plus bonus abilities (weapon choice, horsemanship, saving throw bonuses, ability score increases). "Why would you ever settle for being a Fighter?"
- Best spellcaster: Illusionist over Magic-User. Despite a reputation for weakness, Illusionists have better hit points, faster leveling, and some of their spells can be cast silently.
- Best thief-type: Thief, ideally a half-elf for racial bonuses and unlimited thief advancement.
Multiclass Picks
- Illusionist/Thief rises faster than any other multiclass combination.
- Cleric/Fighter/Magic-User is the ultimate power pick despite slow advancement: great attack spells, healing, physical combat, and access to nearly every magic item in the game — all potions, 90% of scrolls, and every miscellaneous magic item except the Manual of Stealthy Pilfering and the Instrument of the Bards (roughly 99.9% of all items by the DMG charts).
- Dual-class highlights: Druid→Thief, Illusionist→Druid, Fighter→Magic-User (frontload hit points, then cast spells), and Magic-User→Illusionist ("you never know which magic missiles are real").
The Broader Takeaway
Cain presents this as a charming look at his teenage self, but it reveals something significant: the systematic, analytical approach to game mechanics that would define his career at Interplay, Black Isle, and Obsidian was already fully formed in high school or early college. The impulse to graph every class, find the statistical anomalies, and write it up for publication is the same impulse that produced Fallout's SPECIAL system and The Outer Worlds' character builds.
References
- Tim Cain. YouTube video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ob-NNCpwapI